Tuesday, March 20, 2007

March 07 Ritter Budget Office forecasts

• After increasing 13.1 percent in FY 2005-06, gross General Fund revenues are forecast to
increase 6.1 percent in FY 2006-07 and 5.0 percent in FY 2007-08. A large increase in the forecast
for individual income taxes accounts for much of the difference from the December 2006 forecast.
Meanwhile, the sales and use tax forecasts were decreased slightly in FY 2006-07 to reflect the
impact of the holiday snowstorms.
• Cash fund revenues are forecast to decrease 3.9 percent in FY 2006-07 and increase 3.1 percent
in FY 2007-08. The forecasts for cash funds were not significantly altered from those presented in
December, except that the forecast for severance tax collections was lowered for FY 2006-07 and
FY 2007-08.
• Through FY 2008-09, the state will have enough General Fund revenue to maintain appropriations
growth of six percent and make a maximum Senate Bill 97-1 transfer to the Highway Users
Tax Fund. Additionally, the state will have excess reserves of $116.1 million in FY 2006-07, $107
million in FY 2007-08, and $0.5 million in FY 2008-09.
• For FY 2006-07, there is projected to be an additional $101.1 million for transportation and
$38.7 million for capital construction over figures presented in December 2006. For FY 2007-08,
the increases in the forecast for funds to transportation and capital are $202.1 million and
$35.7 million, respectively. Over the five-year forecast period, projected revenue to transportation
increased $856.3 million, while projected revenue to capital construction increased $74.6 million.
• Under the provisions of Referendum C, the State will retain $5.35 billion from FY 2005-06
through FY 2009-10. Therefore, there will not be a TABOR surplus during this five-year period.
However, a TABOR refund of $30.8 million is expected in FY 2010-11.